Arab Spring- Kurdish Summer

After South Sudan and Palestine willl Kurdistan Be Next for independence?

In a dramatic move, last month, the Congress for a Democratic Society (DTK), a platform for Kurdish associations and movements In the Kurdish region of Turkey and the main Kurdish party, BDP, have proclaimed a democratic self-government, saying that the Kurds do not want any longer to live without a status. The 850 delegates of the DTK, meeting Thursday, July 14 in Diyarbakir, the capital of Turkish Kurdistan, have decided to proclaim a "democratic autonomy" for the peaceful resolution of the Kurdish question.

The Kurds are planning their future homeland partly in historic Armenian territories which for over 4000 years have been Armenia's heartland and their ancient culture, until in 1915 the Turkish government perpetrated, massacred and then occupied this land. Now ninety years later, Turkish Kurds want to turn this territory into their autonomy.

This move will shake the foundations of the Turkish state as has been feared for a long time. But the  bold Kurdish initiative does not have only domestic ramifications for Turkey alone. It might well become the trigger for an independent Kurdistan state embracing the Kurdish Iraq, parts of Iran and Syria as well.

Now that the genie is out, the world is watching prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's known wizardry, to see if he can put back the genie in the bottle. Meanwhile the Kurds have created a fait accompli and will not retreat unless they face a bloodbath in traditional Turkish style.

The Diyarbakir declaration  had already fueled tensions in Turkey after an upsurge in Kurdish militant activity, which killed 13 Turkish soldiers, and a boycott of parliament by Kurdish deputies, following the June election of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government.
The daring unprecedented Kurdish move, totally surprised and shocked the Ankara administration, totally stunning  Erdogan and his ministers. Any attempt to annul the Kurdish challenge will have critical repercussions.

The Turkish military has recently undergone a serious crisis, when the entire general staff resigned en block, which may be the reason, why its intelligence service has not given early warning on the political build-up in Diyarbakir.

Prime minister Erdogan and his newly assigned generals are facing a difficult dilemma: Should they order a military intervention to rescind the Kurdish declaration by force, this action, which will no doubt be confronted by violent defiance by the Kurds,  will  certainly get Turkey in trouble with the world, especially in Europe, with which Ankara  has its wishful dreams over joining the European Union.

Being also an important member of the NATO, using military force, including American weapons, against its own people, would be regarded  a very serious matter in Washington.

So, with a bit of luck and political wisdom by the Diyarbakir leaders, the entire Kurdish people could take avantage of the ongoing Arab Spring and prepare the ground for a long anticipated independent Kurdistan, linking up with Iraq's ongoing autonomy, the Iranian Kurdish enclave and perhaps even the Syrian Kurdish minorities, already suffering from Bashar Assad's murdering bullies.

With the Arab world in total turmoil, lacking any orderly leadership, the Kurds could finally achieve their sacred goal for  independence, after decades, if not centuries of  desecration and  oppression. If the Kurds will play their cards wisely, first of all eliminate once and for all their internal disputes and strifes over minor issues, the creation of an independent Kurdistan may even be sanctioned by the United Nations. Following the establishment of South Sudan and soon to be Palestine, the estimated 25 million Kurds, should no longer be denied equal rights for independence, even if their neighbors would react negatively against it.

So meet the Kurds. A largely Sunni Muslim people with their own language and culture. For more than 4,000 years Kurds have inhabited the Zagros Mountains, the Mesopotamian Plains, Taurus Mountains and Mt Ararat. This rugged mountainous region has provided them a sanctuary from military oppression. Generally known as Kurdistan, it nevertheless appears nowhere on any official maps.

Exact numbers of the Kurdish population are difficult to establish. According to estimates,  there are some 13-15 million Kurds living  in Turkey, about five million in Iran, four million in Iraq and some 900,000 in Syria. Over two  million Kurds live scattered in the rest of the world, mostly in central Asia.

The Kurds were arbitrarily overlooked by the victorious powers that artificially carved up the Mideast after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire post-World War I. But during that same period, Kurds began to consider the concept of nationalism, a notion introduced by the British amid the division of traditional Kurdistan among neighboring countries. The 1920 Treaty of Sevres, which created the modern states of Iraq, Syria and Kuwait, was to have included the possibility of a Kurdish state in the region. However, it was never implemented.

After the overthrow of the Turkish monarchy by Kemal Ataturk, Turkey, Iran and Iraq each agreed not to recognize an independent Kurdish state. Despite a common goal of independent statehood, the Kurds in the various countries are hardly unified. From 1994-98, two Iraqi Kurd factions – the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Massoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Jalal Talabani – fought a bloody war for power over northern Iraq. In September 1998, the two sides agreed to a power-sharing arrangement. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, has been  waging a guerrilla insurgency in southeastern Turkey in its quest for an independent Kurdish state which should be a homeland for all Kurds.

The contrast between how the world treats the Palestinians and the Kurds could not be more marked. Palestinians are spoiled with international succor and are pampered financially by the world. They were offered an independent state back in 1947 but rejected it, preferring to destroy the new Jewish state instead. In September, the Palestinians now expect the world to give backing to a unilateral declaration of an independent state. This might well succeed, following the example in South Sudan.

 But inconceivably, the Kurdish declaration for autonomy in Turkey, last month was greeted with total silence. In short, a people meeting many more prerequisites for political seld-determination  failed to elicit even a modicum of  world sympathy so liberally accorded the Palestinians.

However the ongoing 'Arab Spring' could eventually shift into a 'Kurdish Summer', if their leaders, execising wiser statemanship, will find a way to join hands in what seems to become their golden opportunity. As dramatic changes are sweeping the entire Arab world, new chances could emerge for Kurdish independence as well. With the dilemma in Ankara growing steadily, the future of Turkey's Kurdish minority is  inevitably shifting into its national focus. The long unfulfilled quest of the Kurds for independent statehood is now emerging as a major barrier in Turkey’s path to the European Union and in Ankara’s relations with the United States.
Hardly a day goes by without Turkish threats to enter northern Iraq, still held by US forces,  in pursuit of Kurdish PKK rebels waging a 32-year-old guerrilla war that has claimed countless lives. This very concept, even Turkish officials say, is dynamite under the foundations of the  Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's led republic.

But should something sofar unexpected happen and the United Nations will at last follow suit with a declaration of an independent Kurdistan, the Kurdish troubles will be far from over. In fact, they might face an onslaught of three neighbors, determined to destroy the fledgling creation before it matures into a strategic threat to them.

Turkey cannot afford an independent Kurdistan, it would be losing some of its highly strategic and economic assets. In fact, without Kurdish eastern Turkey, the entire nation coherence would break apart.  Iran will fear the establishment of a dangerous  Sunni stronghold on its eastern border, destabilizing the already highly ethnic sensitive Sh'ite republic.

It seems that military intervention  will become the only option and Turkey's military might will be dominant in this dangerous venture, which might have unprecedented repercussions throughout the entire region.

The Turkish General Staff  certainly realizes that any military action aimed at the Kurdish enclave in south-eastern Turkey would be a high-risk operation. The area is mostly mountainous and difficult to enter with armored forces. The Turkish army has already experienced such kind of fighting against the PKK. From  1984 to 1999 alone, the army battled  PKK guerillas in southeast Turkey in an expensive conflict which took over 30,000 lives. Should Ankara decide to eliminate the Kurdish declaration for independence, by force, they could face hundreds of thousands determined fighters, many of them trained by the Turkish Army itself during their mandatory service, or as regular officers and soldiers. Up to one-fifth of Turkey's 72 million people are Kurds, meaning that tens of thousands serve in the armed forces at any one time.  

No doubt, the Kurdish Peshmerga instructors will start training the Turkish Kurds to fight a guerilla war in the south Turkey mountains, which provide excellent conditions to ward off large military forces. In such difficult terrain, entire divisions could be broken up by determined fighters, cleverly using their own familiar habitat to establish bunkers in crevices, mine the narrow mountain passes with IEDs, every ridge, nook and cranny becoming a major infantry operation.

Moreover, the Turkish army will face a much more serious problem, once the Turkish conscripts no lonver count among the mandatory and regular service troops. Those soldiers make up a large segment of the infantry and will be hard, if not entirely impossible to replace.

Prime minister Erdogan seems to have anticipated this problem and has already ordered his newly created  army staff  to start hiring professional frontline troops and is examining ways to cut compulsory military service, which currently provides the bulk of the army’s manpower. To build and train a professional army takes time and resources, which will place a heavy burden on Turkey's economy, time which might become critical if the Turkish Kurds will merge with the Iraqi Pershmerga fighters. Under such circumstances, the " new" Turkish army could face the full impact of a seasoned Peshmerga army of more than 100,000 fighters operating in extremely complex and very difficult terrain.

Peshmerga "those who face death" have been in existence since the advent of the Kurdish independence movement in the early 1920s, following the collapse of theOttoman Empire. They are highly  motivated and trained mountain fighters known for their courage and fierce fighting spirit.

In this turbulent part of the world, already undergoing some highly dramatic changes, Turkey will no doubt soon come into world focus, as this political wizard, prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan  is facing his yet most difficult challenge.

Part Two will analyse the economic and military prospects of an independent Kurdistan

Unilateral Palestinian State Will be a Non-Starter

Already, about 100 nations across the world have come out in recognition of an independent Palestinian state, including, most recently, Turkey and more might be coming onboard until September, when the United Nations General Assembly will vote for the creation of an independent Palestinian State within the 1967 borders.

Symbolism aside, if there is one thing the Palestinians have not learned in four decades of fruitless peace talks, it is that if ever they hope to have a state of their own, it will only be through realistic negotiations with Israel. A UNGA vote might give them a temporary field day in joyful manifestations, but when the curtain goes down
reality will again erase all the hope for a workable solution.

Here are some of the reasons, why a unilateral move will create a non-starter situation, that will never work:  Even if the UNGA passes a resolution, calling for the creation of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, it will still remain a landlocked entity, fully dependent on Israel's goodwill to provide access to Mediterranean ports- that Palestine will depend on for its import and export. Palestinian dependence on water supply also rests on Israeli sources which themselves suffer acute shortage and will more and more rely on desalination plants- hardly accessible under the circumstances which will prevail if Palestine is unilaterally created. A simple look at the West Bank map will show that a non-negotiated unilateral Palestinian statehood, call it what you will, presents an impossible geo-political place which can be ruled by central administration. Even if we discount the Jewish settlements, its remaining territory is partitioned, and subdivided into cantons, without directly controlled links between them, a situation that would scarcely be a state worthy of the name.

To be more specific the Palestinian West Bank presents a disaster: Geopolitically it is practically divided into two parts, a northern part with Ramallah, Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarem and Qalqilya as Palestinian enclaves, and a southern section with Bethlehem, Jericho, and Hebron. In between there is Jerusalem, that has now been expanded eastwards to such a degree that it encroaches upon the Judean Desert and cuts the Palestinian territory in half. The Jordan Valley, that should normally mark the natural boundary between the future Palestine and the Kingdom of Jordan, is practically a military zone, and Israel has already made it clear that it does not intend to demilitarize it. In other words, the future Palestine will be a land-locked State, surrounded completely by Israeli territory.  And there is more: Although the Israeli and Palestinian economies are intertwined, Palestinians are far more reliant on the Israeli economy than vice versa. Eight-seven percent of all Palestinian exports are to Israel and more than 73% of Palestinian imports come from Israel. And the Palestinian Authority is already undergoing a serious financial crisis. According to Prime Minister Salam Fayyad the PA cannot even pay its employees because of what he said was “the failure of donors, including our Arab brothers, to fulfill their pledges.” The Palestinian Authority has accumulated a deficit of more than $500 million in 2011.

Searching for an alternative, to overcome the landlocked situation,  using Jordan's Aqaba port instead might be useless, as any transports would have to cross the Jordan River bridges, which Israel will continue to control- moreover it is highly doubtful, if the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan will welcome such a move, fearing more Palestinian influence on the already large population of Palestinian origin, including Islamic radicals among them, causing dangerous instability in the Kingdom.
Half of the Palestinian population is concentrated in the Gaza Strip, cut off from the West Bank and ruled by the Islamic radicals Hamas, which not only places at its aim the ultimate destruction of Israel, but opposes any Palestinian state ruled by its arch rival the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) headed by Abu Mazen. Moreover, Hamastan, which was created in a violent coup d'etat in 2007 is virtually at war with Israel, bombarding it's territory constantly with rockets and mortar fire. Having already won the controversial 2006 elections, should they win the oncoming ballots once more- the would destabilize any newly created entity in the West Bank and resort to terror against Israel- which will inevitably lead to all-out war, resulting in  catastrophic consequences and final hope to any Palestinian liberty. The latest attempt to unify Hamas and Fatah into a joint Government, has so far failed even to agree on a prime minister to lead it and as long as Hamas regards the destruction of Israel as its main agenda, peace with such a "unified" Palestinian authority seems totally out of the question for any Israeli government.

But should the UNGA assembly vote come to be and a huge majority will support this unrealistic creation, Israel too will come under severe political and perhaps even economic pressure. The real value of the vote will depend on which nations will give their "yes" to the proposal. The Arab and Muslim world nations are certain to adhere to their traditional anti-Israel stance, but whether Europe and especially the majority of the G20 countries will join will depend on the United States attitude and how much influence it will have on the proceedings. It will be up to Israel's diplomacy effort during the next few months to gain as much support among its remaining friendly nations to prevent a political disaster from occurring, both within it's political survival, while maintaining it's sphere of global influence. With the revolutionary turmoil engulfing its neighbors and the waning influence of Washington's Obama administration, Israel will feel more and more isolated in the coming months, with the specter of a massive support for a Palestinian statehood, backed by the United Nations placing the Jewish State in a highly precarious diplomatic situation.
"'We are facing a diplomatic-political Tsunami that the majority of the public is unaware of and that will peak in September,' said Ehud Barak, Israel’s defense minister, at a conference in Tel Aviv last month. 'It is a very dangerous situation, one that requires action.' He added, 'Paralysis, rhetoric, inaction will deepen the isolation of Israel.'”

And there is good reason for concern, even if the UNGA recognizes the "non-starter" Palestinian statehood coming September.  With this vote, which will have similarity with the November 1947 Lake Success vote for the establishment of the Jewish State, the majority of  so far official ownerless real estate in the West Bank occupied by Jews will come under 'de jure', if not 'de facto' under nominal jurisdiction of the UNGA created entity. So far, most this land had no official owner and was regarded 'occupied under military administration' since 1967m before this it was occupied by the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the last 'owners' were the Turkish ruled Ottoman Empire, the law of which still adheres to much of the legal proceedings. Realistically seen, it might not make any difference, as it is highly doubtful that substantial changes will come into being as long as bi-lateral negotiations will try to solve this enigma. With the entire Arab Middle East in turmoil, even the leftist Palestinian "well-wishers" in Israel can hardly envisage the mass evacuation of the Jewish settlers in the West Bank and cede it to an uncertain fate with what may well become a Islamic Hamas ruled neighbor- its rockets targeting most of Israel's coastal cities and strategic installations.

But Israel cannot afford to sit quietly by and await such a dominant majority to vote against it's strategic interest either and something has to be done- an fast to try and  eliminate, or at least, defer the oncoming UNGA vote. It will demand a change of diplomatic policy without delay and come up with new and convincing proposals, which insisting unchanged, on Israel's security interests, renew, for example, the 2000 Camp David proposals, which agreed to gradually cede nearly 90% of the West Bank to Palestine ( then under the late Yassir Arafat- who turned down the generous offer and started the Intifada instead). With the new leadership under Abu Mazen and Salam Fayyad, this could lead perhaps to serious negotiations towards an acceptable solution. Bearing in mind the letter written by then president George W Bush to Ariel Sharon ( 14 April 2004), quote "In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli population centers, it is unrealistic that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all previous efforts to negotiate a two-state solution have reached the same conclusion. It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement will only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities", a mutually accepted settlement of the border might even be achieved.

The Palestinians have nothing to gain by winning a relatively insignificant vote in the oncoming September general assembly, it will get them nowhere in their quest for a feasible independent statehood that can function. For Israel the ongoing Arab revolutionary fervor sweeping the Middle East urgently requires a unity coalition, like the one, which then prime minister Levi Eshkol created on the even of the 1967 Six Day war crisis. Let some wise statesmanship, "Churchill-like"- save the day before it is too late.

Operation 'Odyssey Dawn'- Lots of Noise, But Little Purpose

Photo: DVIDSHUB

David Eshel

A former British air force commander said a clear objective in Libya is needed before launching airstrikes. Now the strikes are on and may produce the "Biggest Show in Town" but unfortunately, little more. But what is the objective of Operation 'Odyssey Dawn'? Does it include a regime change, or physical removal of Colonel Muammar Qaddafi personally?  If so, what of his seven sons – are they to be targeted too? As far as we know, UNSC Resolution 1973 calls for the "halt in the fighting and to achieve a ceasefire". It does not explicitly call for the removal of Col Muammar Gaddafi or a even a regime change. In fact, it specifies clearly that no ground action is permitted: It  "authorizes member states to "take all necessary means to protect civilians", but crucially excludes any "foreign occupation force" moving into the territory of Qaddafi's Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, in most sweeping terms. So what 'necessary means' can the operation take to achieve to protect civilians? Without getting 'boots on the ground' very little can be achieved in any military action. Even hitting high-profile targets will become difficult, when hidden, or well camouflaged in urban environment., without 'eyes on the ground'. So what is the purpose behind all this noise?

When the US and its allies invaded Iraq in 2003 the aim was to overthrow Saddam Hussein and this was achieved by ground action. When NATO  entered Kosovo in 1999 its purpose was to stop ethnic cleansing by Slobodan Milosevic's army. As mentioned, the precise objectives of  Operation Odyssey Dawn 2011, and how they will be achieved, are by far, less well-defined – and therefore, potentially problematic. It therefore looks like 'good old' Qaddafi will stay in power in Tripoli for some time to come and a form of stalemate will eventually emerge, bringing to a partition between the east and west, which could 'invite' Jihadist elements filling the void. Moreover, having already attacked Qaddafi, he will feel cornered, making him again one of the top dangerous terrorists in the world.

Should Operation Odyssey Dawn end in a divided Libya, the danger of it becoming a Jihadist terror base will be real. There are reports that radical Islamist elements are already active in the rebel held eastern part of Libya. Taking advantage of the ongoing chaos, a large group of Islamist gunmen, believed to be members of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), recently seized a weapons depot in the eastern Libyan port city of Derna. Calling itself the “Islamist Emirate of Baraqa,” the group, assisted by a former Libyan Army Colonel named Adnan al-Nwisri, seized a large cache of weapons. There may be other Islamic groups active in this area, which have not yet been identified. It needs little imagination to estimate the danger posed to Egypt, still in process to reorganize itself, to fill the leadership gap, left after Mubarak. A radical Islamic neighbor could have devastating consequences in this highly sensitive and dangerous situation.

So under the present UNSC constraints, there is little hope that Operation Odyssey Dawn will achieve anything apart from a few days of high profile public relations, indicating UN and  Western determination to act and, inevitably- with a considerable bill to pay, adding to an already dwindling defense budget in the UK, France and even the USA.

According to a new report issued by the US Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, three options for a No-Fly Zone over Libya would have three very different costs:

1. "Full No-Fly Zone" covering all of Libya
- $100 million to $300 million per week
- Initial strike to secure airspace: $500 million and $1 billion
- Six month total: $3.1 billion - $8.8 billion
- Similar to no-fly zone imposed over Iraq (Operation Northern and Southern Watch)

2. Limited No-Fly Zone focusing on the northern third of Libya
- $30 million to $100 million per week
- Initial strike to secure airspace: $400 million to $800 million
- Six month total $1.18 billion - $3.4 billion

3. Stand-off No-Fly Zone focusing on coastal Libya with only air and naval assets beyond Libyan territory
- $15 million to $25 million per week. 

For a total cost estimate- take your pick, as to how long the operation will last.

Just as a reminder, the No Fly Zone over Iraq lasted from 1991 to 2003, when Operation 'Iraqi Freedom' started. Before that, Operation 'Deny Flight' over Bosnia took place from April 12, 1993–December 20, 1995.

With no specific aim for Operation Odyssey Dawn, any guess might be right to define how long it will last until someone decides, either to change the UN resolution terms and send ground troops in to remove the tyrant, or let him stay, with all the dangerous consequences involved.

The Vacuum After Qaddafi Will Be Filled by Jihadists

I am no friend of Qaddafis, but nor have I any yearning towards Al Qaeda or the  Muslim Jihadists taking over the Libyan void, once this weird figure is chased out.And it sure will come to this, although western leaders and the media keep ignoring the facts. Qaddafi might be mentally stuck in eighth century Islamic traditions that certainly were not intended to build a seeming democratic nation, but erode another. The Western press continues to tell its readers that once the old tyrant will disappear, Libya will become a moderate nation, its people longing for freedom and self expression, after 42 years of brutal oppression. Unfortuntely, as with the ongoing popular uprisings in the region, hope for a western style democracy in the Muslim nations seem, at best a deceptive and naive view, if not sheer wishful thinking. In the words of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who still plans his country to become member of the Euuropean Union: “Democracy is a product of western culture, and it cannot be applied to the middle-east which has a different cultural, religious, sociological and historical background”- could there be a more  explicit  and frank opinion issued by a "moderate" Islamist leader?

Based on recent past, "successful" attempts  to demote ruling despots and democratize these people, ended in just more misery and bloodshed, until even more brutal leaders emerged from the ensuing turmoil. Western intellectuals continue their naive talk about Islam really being a ‘religion of peace’ that only needs to evolve through a moderate revival, to become a democratic entity, once it frees itself from centuries of the oppressive clerics. Still many of those pseudo-oriental scholars, continue preaching about this possibility, while totally ignoring the fact that Islam is in fact already right in the midst of a revival, but a post-colonial fundamentalist radical revival that is affecting Muslims all over  the world, even those in Western countries including the United States. No less a person than Iranian President Ahmadinejad recently told European leaders that Islam was in the midst of a revival that would culminate in world-wide Muslim domination.

According to US based University Professor Walid Phares, himself a born Lebanese and leading Scholar of world reknown, warns that Islamic  jihadists want to impose a re-creation of the strict religious law caliphate, by merging dozens of Muslim countries into one world power and thereby obsrtuct any democratization attempts in the Middle East. In prof. Phares' words: " The jihadists have been waging a war of ideology against democracies, using the influence of their petro-economies and (western) democracies have fallen to a "global civil war" of ideas, politics and interests". This highly dangerous trend, which is already enfolding through the so far leader-less mass demonstrations, all over the Middle East, may become the vanguard of this world dominating jihadist caliphate, if not stopped in time, already running short.

Libyan opposition leaders, which France and Great Britain are desperately trying to bolster in their failing attempt to demote Qaddafi and his henchmen, are actually casting themselves as 'true followers' of Islam- but far from being the Western-style freedom movement, that the media has miscast. That the Libyan revolt is Islamic in character and is being deliberately misrepresented in western media reports, although clear anti-western slogans are issued constantly by rebel leaders.They clearly emphasize the nature of their intent- turning post-Qaddafi's Libya into a Jihadi Islam nation, with a Taliban-like Shariah law installed.

An even more mystifying fact, that among the leading elements in the rebelling Libyans, the notorious Libyan Islamic Fighting Group ( LIFG)  is represented.  According to the Washington based Center for Defense Information, LIFG is regarded as a highly dangerous anti-western organization, which aims replacing the Qaddafi regime with a government modelled on the most exterme Sunna ( Wahhabi) principles. And LIFG is not alone in its quest for Islamization of Post-Qaddafi Libya. According to a report from Al Arabiya, a senior rebel leader confessed to European politicians in Tripoli, that the terrorist group Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, (AQIM) has already set up an “Islamic emirate” in Derna, a city in eastern Libya. It s headed by a former prisoner once held at the U.S. detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

What will happen in the Libyan war depends now on the western determination to oust Colonel Qaddafi from his subterranean bunker in Tripoli. So far his troops seem to make progress against the rebels, but if the controversial "no-fly zone" should prevent his air power from taking to the sky, the situation could become critical for Qaddafi. Just how this "no-fly zone" will operate seems questionable from a sheer military viewpoint. Without massive USAF and USN intervention, the Europeans have little chance to become effective. Although Qaddafi's air defenses are not exactly powerful, these still have to be eliminated before a danger-free operational airspace can be established on acceptable flight-operation conditions. As most of the Libyan SAMs are mobile, their neutralization will require real-time intelligence and rapid reaction with sensor-to-strike missions. Gaining such information will inevitably require "boots on the ground"- a high-risk operation in itself. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates left little room for optimism in this realm when he mentioned: "In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should have his head examined".

But sooner or later mounting pressure from the West and the Arab League will force Moammar Gaddafi to go, just as Mubark went. But then what? Whom does Mr Obama wish to replace this lunatic Libyan despot? A vacuum in leadership in this unstable country will inevitably lead to an Islamic revolution like that in Iran 1979. When Hosni Mubarak stepped down in Egypt, the military temporarily took to the reins and  and blunted any opportunity for an Islamic revolution, at least for the time being. However a jihadist neighbor in Post-Qaddafi Libya will certainly encourage Islamic elements, led by the highly Influential Muslim cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who is just waiting for his chance to fill in the void. Linking a radical shift in the Egyptian Brotherhood under Qaradawi with LIFG and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, (AQIM) could become the founding pillars for the prophesied  quest for the jihadist' caliphate.

However, should Qaddafi maintain his hold on Libya- which seems likely, as western leaders are still dithering over launching an ineffective "no-fly" zone, the colonel's message to Arab and Iranian autocrats will be clear: "do what you see effective to maintain your regime- don't worry about Obama or the EU' they only talk and do nothing".

The Saudis already acted and sent their troops into Bahrain, just before Tehran would, to support their Shiites rioting against the Kingdom. No doubt, the King of Jordan will also be encouraged to keep his Hashemite throne, while the military in Egypt might become more aggressive, should the 'Lotus' revolution get out of control.

Meanwhile the Obama administration continues to lose its prestige as a resolute world leader- the  series of amateurish statements from the president and his aides seem rediculous, only underlining the impotence of a dwindling 'Pax Americana', caught so flatfooted in the latest crisis management. His wavering attitude has already damaged American credibility throughout the region, particularly with leaders who for decades were Washington's loyal allies. Mr. Obama thus made a virtue out of not having a strategy.

Unfortunately, with such a dubious record, there is little hope that Barak Hussein Obama can hardly become the Peacemaker, which he so passionately wishes to be.

Related Item:
16/12/2007: Defeated in Iraq, Al Qaeda Migrates to Maghreb -Next Stop: Europe

Who and What's Behind the Popular Uprisings?

Part One: The Muslim Brotherhood's Clever Disguise

David Eshel

Mass social movements are normally instigated, or even directed by key players, often operating behind the scenes, but  directing manifestations with very specific goals and intentions in mind. Of course the quick response from most of the press releases is, that the people of Tunis, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and as late, also Libya and Bahrain,  are just disgusted from decades of corruption and injustice by their political leaders and that it is merely a public response to years of  continued misery, mismanagement and power grabbing.  But digging a little deeper into the reasons surrounding these momentous events some interesting patterns are emerging.

We believe that there is a hidden hand shrewdly manipulating these historic events, with a definite strategy, carefully calculated in achieving a long aspired regional plan.

There are three major reasons, which are currently motivating the masses in the Arab world:

-   Popular discontent over lasting economic mismanagement by ruling corrupt despots and  unacceptable disparity in national wealth among a small upper class and the people

-   Decline in Western prestige in the region, diminishing support to moderate Sunni nations, pronounced through  its waning military performance in Iraq and Afghanistan and passive conduct in critical situations facing strategic challenges by Islamic subversive elements. 

- Unprecedented diffusion of mass media information technologies available to middle class citizens- who previously had no access to free uncensored information, all used to evoke large masses raising against the authorities.

The Internet , Facebook and Twitter have indeed been key mediums in organizing and directing the demonstrations, making these to appear as mere social movements.  While the same mass media also offers wide public dissemination around the globe in real-time, it is highly hypothetic to assume, that such contagious manifestations could incite simultaneous mass demonstrations, without some guiding force behind it. Organizing large-scale public events requires preparations, which are extremely dangerous in autocratic nations, constantly monitoring such activities closely, and striking home before they emerge.

The present series of such mass demonstrations, infecting others in unprecedented succession, is a new development in the Middle East. Rather than being a mere public response to injustice and corruption, which no doubt seem genuine under the circumstances, there appears to be a very specific strategy which has not yet been fully exposed.

Western media are engulfed by a wave of enthusiastic euphoria, describing scenes of cheering popular awaking- in revival of long gone romantic memories- like the fall of Communism, or the toppling of the Berlin Wall. But unfortunately, the Clocks in the Middle East are moving quite differently. Even in such momentous past events, in which kings and brutal despots were removed, the ultimate outcome proved worse than before and the peoples' misery and despair became aggravated by even more ruthless leaderships.

A strange phenomenon, which is missing in the present popular manifestations, is the obvious leadership directing the masses. This missing link is presenting a lucrative void to be exploited by highly organized, usually shrewdly operating elements, normally emerging from radical Islamic sources.

Someone is already lurking in the shadows, having waited patiently for the opportune moment to gain his coveted goal- Shia domination of the Sunni hegemony in the region: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader has already called the popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia an “Islamic liberation movement”.

The Khomeini example could illustrate the dilemma confronting the Egyptian leaderless opposition. A missing dynamic leader may end up stunting their genuine revolutionary movement. But even having one has its own dangers. All too often, successful revolutionary leaders, once having tasted their power, may turn out to be even more despotic than their ousted predecessors.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the ongoing Domino effect, spreading like wildfire around the entire region, is the enigma of the Muslim Brotherhood- perhaps the only organized entity, which could recruit sufficient power to benefit from the popular uprising. But so far, the Brotherhood has kept invisibly hiding carefully in the shadows. Are they waiting until chaos is reaching unacceptable proportions, and only then step in to the gather the spoils?

The answer could already be in the offing. At the zenith of the "victory Parade" last Friday, Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the ultra-radical spiritual father figure of the Muslim Brotherhood suddenly appeared on Tahrir Square, having returned from his long exile in Qatar. Holding a fiery sermon before the packed audience, the 84 year old sheikh lauded political Islam in a future role in Egyptian politics.

One of the strangest school of thought is also emerging from Washington. Testifying recently before the U.S. House Committee on Intelligence, retired air force general James Clapper (70), Director of U.S. National Intelligence and the overseer of 16 various intelligence agencies, actually made an unbelievingly startling comment, describing the Muslim Brotherhood as "largely secular", totally misplacing that this very organization became one of the founders of Osama bin Laden's Islamic Al Qaeda, with some of its members being active leaders in this global terrorist group!  How the top US intelligence director could misguide on such an important issue, which his very own organization is fighting for decades, is past comprehension!  No wonder then, that his boss, President Barak Hussein Obama is ignoring, or even misunderstanding most of the burning issues, which are already inflaming  one of the most explosive regions on earth.

Moreover, a recent translation of a book written by the movement’s fifth official leader  should shed light on just how Egypt’s Brotherhood views itself and its mission. Titled 'The Laws of Da’wa'  by Mustafa Mashhur,  details the Brotherhood’s objectives of advancing the global conquest of Islam and reestablishing the Islamic Caliphate. Reading Mashhur's and other such writings, which are in abundance, one must come to an uncontested conclusion, that any White House rambling over the Muslim Brotherhood being moderates is absolute nonsense. In fact, The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is as radical as Hamas and Hezbollah. But meanwhile the Brotherhood is using a cunning guise to shield its real intentions. Leaving the "dirty" work to its affiliated terrorist group Al-Gama'a a Islamiyya, actually its military wing, the Brotherhood can hide behind a curtain of moderation.

But Al Gama, under the leadership of the notorious Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman,  imprisoned in the US following the 1973 World Trade Center bombing, engaged in a ruthless terrorist campaign during the nineties. During the present manifestations, the group's new spiritual leader, Muhammad Badi,  has publicly called for violent jihad, including against the U.S.

But matters are getting even more precarious, as Wikileaks tell us: Even as people in Washington  were officially supporting their staunch ally, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, American officials were secretly helping Egyptian dissidents interested in using social media to overthrow his regime. This astonishing news was revealed in a secret cable from Cairo Embassy, to the State Department dated December 30, 2008 noting: " A leader of the April 6 Youth Movement (a Facebook-driven group that has played a major role in Egypt's current upheaval)l  told U.S. officials that opposition groups had agreed on a plan to replace the autocrat with a parliamentary democracy". Virtually undermining their ally, U.S. officials helped this man to attend the “Alliance of Youth Movements Summit,” which took place that same month at  Columbia University in New York, in which speeches were held among others by a senior undersecretary in the U.S. State Department.

If this is not sufficient evidence of American ignorance, if not monumental stupidity, the result from this caper was that the same "April 6" Movement leaders, now affiliated to the anti-American Muslim Brotherhood have expressed similar radicalism against the United States and the Egypt-Israel peace accord, which they defy and abolish.

The way in which the Obama Administration is handling the ongoing crisis in the Middle East leaves much to be desired, an understatement, if any.  It could, if not curbed in time, with an energetic change of strategy, bring to total disaster and inevitably to  Shia hegemony of the entire Sunni region.

Cairo 2011: Next Stop-an Islamic Republic?

Photo: AFP

There is a lot of confusion about the ongoing Egyptian crisis, yet it is vital that people understand what is really at stake here.

It all happened before, but unfortunately, the American leadership headed by Barak Hussein Obama seems to have a short memory- or is simply ignorant of the new Middle East-  already on its way becoming a radical Islamic caliphate.

Former US President Jimmy Carter will go down in American history as "the president who lost Iran" a major US ally, trurning into a brutal Islamic state, destabilizing the entire Middle East. Now, thirty years later, President Obama is losing western oriented Turkey, Lebanon and now Egypt to the same fate. What started a few weeks ago in the so-called "Jasmine Revolution" in Tunis- has engulfed millions of Egyptians in their "Twitter Revolution" , with the epicenter culminating in Tahrir Square urging 83 year old President Hosni Mubarak to go, under Obama's obsessive pressure.

The collapse of the old regime in Cairo, once it takes place, will have a massive  on the entire region. The Domino effect, is  shaking the rulers in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Israel's thirty year long peace treaty with Egypt is questionable and will require a comprehensive strategic re-assessment, with significant military and economic repercussion.

Obama's incomprehensible  incompetence in foreign affairs has already become deadly for Middle East and for the entire western world- his present mishandling of the dangerous developments in Tunis, Beirut and now Cairo- seem catastrophic, to say the least. 
Within days, America's position in the "moderate" Arab world crumbled into an unprecedented abyss. So many carefully built relationships, which kept this volatile region on the brink of war, by careful crisis management and wise statesmanship in Washington, have evaporated, within days, into chaos and dangerous anarchy, from which only irresponsible elements, such as Islamic Jihad can benefit.

And so they shall indeed, sooner than later, as history teaches us here, for decades, but unfortunately, these trends remain strangely unheeded in Washington, as by many European leaders, which should know better, being already next in line, as targets of Islamic fundamentalism.

Freedom and liberalism are at the roots of western society and its culture and should be nourished by every democracy- but, as history in the Middle East has, time and again demonstrated, the Arab world has not yet absorbed the benefits of this domain and extremist elements exploit free elections as convenient instruments in gaining ruthless power for their Islamic ambitions. Hezbollah and Hamas are only two recent detrimental events.

Now the Washington's oppressive demand to dismantle Hosni Mubarak's thirty year rule, which may not have been based on liberal principles, but nevertheless kept eighty million people living in peace for three decades,  within a volatile region, in which thousands of  Egyptians lost their lives in three wars with Israel. Now, with Mubarak, the Tyrant gone, and with chaos and anarchy ruling the streets, with no reliable leadership in sight, the scene will soon be ripe for an Islamic take over, which will have serious consequences. These will not only be highly precarious for the Egyptian people, longing for freedom, which will be denied them, but catastrophic for the entire region. The big question asked by secular moderates is wether Muslim Brotherhood will hijack the "Twitter Revolution"?  Indeed, many of the Egyptian seculars demonstrating in the streets of Cairo, are fearing the Muslim 'fixers in the shadows'  may emerge as Egypt's new leadership.

So who are those Islamic elements, which are sofar carefully watching events, waiting in the background, only to make their move when the right moment arrives.

Introducing the Muslim Brotherhood

Being the most organized factions in Egypt, excluding the army,  the Muslim Brotherhood has a long history in Middle East politices and foremost in Egypt. Founded by Imam Hassan al-Banna in 1928, as an Islamic political social movement, its ranks swelled to nearly two million members, during WW2, supporting the Nazis, involved in agitation against the British, espionage and sabotage, as well as support for terrorist activities orchestrated by the Mufti Haj Amin el-Hussaini. The Brotherhood has been an illegal organization, but remains the largest opposition group in Egypt, advocating Islamic reform. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, the Brotherhood's candidates, who had to run as independents due to their illegality as a political party, won 88 seats (20% of the total) to form the largest opposition bloc. However in last November elections, the Brotherhood was totally banned, which may have aggravated the tension already building up against Mubarak.

The Egyptian Brotherhood has also strong links with Al Qaeda. Dr Ayman Muhammad Rabaie al-Zawahiri, a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood, had joined al Qaeda in 1998 to become Osama Bin Laden's Second in Command. Several of Al Qaeda's prominent leaders were also members of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.

Mohamed ElBaradie, the Nobel Laureate who ran the International Atomic Energy Agency, now aspires to serve as an interim leader, following Mubarak's regime.  He is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, and, in turn, tries to portray the Islamic organization as a moderate, social oriented faction, which should not arouse fear in the mostly secular majority, now demonstrating against the military regime. But once the Brotherhood will gain political power filling the vacuum, those very seculars will be in for a terrifying surprise, as happened to the  secular student of Tehran thirty years ago.

But there is an even more sinister scenario lurking in the shadows. The Mubarak regime has long been suspicious of the connection between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, based in large part on Iran's strong ties to Hamas, an offshoot of the Brotherhood. Although most oriental analysts claim that Sunni Egypt is far from coming under the banner of Tehran's Shiite influence, it is perhaps lesser known, that Egyptians are more receptive and positively disposed toward Shiism than other Sunni Arabs. One reason is the Fatimid Dynasty that was established in Egypt in the tenth century as an offshoot of the Shiite Ismaelite movement. According to official estimates, the Shiites constitute less than 1 percent of the Egyptian population (approximately 657,000), but Muhammad al-Darini, a prominent Sunni who converted to Shiism, puts the figure at 1.5 million, However the Muslim Brotherhood, although being Sunni in its religion, has already long-standing relationship with the Shiite clerics in Tehran Following the 1979 Islamic revolution, the Egyptian Brotherhood openly sided with Khomeini's revolutionaries as they overthrew the Shah. Now ignoring  lessons from the past, Obama and his aides gamble  that an anti-American Islamist government in Cairo, allied with Iran won’t emerge from the chaos. But when polled only recently, 59% of Egyptians said they backed the Islamists, which should have raised alarm bells in Washington long ago. As the world now watches the present turmoil in Egypt, there is a palpable fear that the Muslim Brotherhood will eventually seize power. With Iran already deeply involved with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, there is little doubt that, given the opportunity, Tehran's Islamic specter will also target Cairo.

I've had my fill of the Israel-bashing

Enough is enough!

These days every half-witted political  penpusher in a sleazy second rate rag is blaming us freely for any mishap and misery occurring in the Middle East and sometimes, even in the whole world!
And the United Nations, is also joining the fun, whenever the occasion is ripe. The so-called   UN "Human Rights"  council having staged Durban II in 2009, with the agenda being to update all the wonderful progress it had made in eliminating racism, really culminated in this ludicrous  farce. Once more, the conference accused Israel of racism, for simply existing and singled out the Jewish state by name - making it the only country so targeted in that grotesque festival. Countries not named "Israel" could enslave minorities, sexually mutilate women and trample on human rights of every kind, without so much as raising an eyebrow by the United Nations. Sofar the US misguided policy, thwarting the UN's  "Israel Bashing" festival  was, at best ineffective, if not totally ignorant. It is therefore high time for  President Obama to lead a full-throated boycott on such deliberate UN actions ( after all Washington is carrying most of the UN payroll!) and make sure to all understand that no friend of Durban III can also be a friend of the USA.

We Israelis are not gun-toting offish brutes, nor brandishing knives in our jaws. We might have our share of Arab-haters, or criminals and,  as are present in most countries, corrupt officials and among these, count even prominent political leaders. But we are the only democracy in this region, where such criminals are brought to justice and even incarcerated, once found guilty by law.
Nevertheless, every time Palestinians are killed, the stereotyped left-wingers and  usual liberalist types,  immediately gather to cry out about 'Zionist oppression' and 'Israeli apartheid'. Yet, when Palestinian rockets fall on Israeli villages and children are murdered in mass suicide bombings, those same "well wishers' are always keeping strangely mum. It may be of interest, that Israel has an abundance of such homegrown liberals in store here. There are watchkeepers ready to pounce on soldiers and their commanders, whenever they suspect them to act out of order against Palestinians, wether guilty or not. There is a free press, virtually uncensored, despite Israel being under constant threat for the last sixty three years. No military, or police commander is immune from scrutiny by the ever inquisitive and prying media hunters, looking into every nook and cranny of Israel's behavior in the territories, or during military operations. Even the sacred intelligence agencies are coming under the public monitor, when slightest suspicion of misbehavior is presumed. Our enemies have benefited from this, to them apparent weakness, as a luctrative, totally freely-accessible intelligence source.
Although Israel is surrounded by millions of hostile Arabs, wishing to eliminate the Jewish State since its creation, we have unflinchingly remained a dedicated democracy, in splendid isolation, among this volatile and dangerous region.

We do not claim to be a perfect nation, far from it. But we can certainly match our skills and moralistic behavior with any other democracies, including those, who constantly encourage indiscriminate criticism of the Israel bashers.

To our enemies and their staunch allies, any intelligent explanation will  be futile and in vain. But I do hope that Israel has still many friends left in the world. To those friends, some of which could, by unfortunate misrepresentations of our own media,  be negatively influenced, I wish to try and portray Israel's present  situation in an unfettered and unbiased way. This is the goal of my forthcoming opinion blogs, the first of which you are now reading.


I shall welcome your comments, whatever they are and look forward to a stimulating dialogue sharing our views.